…the volume of smoked tobacco entering the legal retail market fell 22% in a single year and 58% compared with 2015. While New Zealand Health Survey data put daily adult smoking at 6.8% in 2024/25, down from 16.4% in 2011/12.
New Zealand’s latest tobacco figures are adding weight to a pattern increasingly difficult for policymakers to overlook: countries where smokers have meaningful access to vaping are continuing to record historically low levels of cigarette use. The country’s 2025 tobacco returns show the volume of smoked tobacco entering the legal retail market fell 22% in a single year and 58% compared with 2015. While New Zealand Health Survey data put daily adult smoking at 6.8% in 2024/25, down from 16.4% in 2011/12. The estimated number of daily smokers has nearly halved over that period.
For the Coalition of Asia Pacific Tobacco Harm Reduction Advocates (CAPHRA), New Zealand provides a particularly relevant case study for neighbouring governments that continue to prohibit or heavily restrict lower-risk nicotine products. Executive Coordinator Nancy Loucas argues that the results challenge predictions that regulated vaping access would derail progress against cigarettes.
Smoking decreases as vaping increases (worldwide)
These figures contrast dramatically with the U.S. youth smoking epidemic of previous decades. They also complicate the argument that introducing alternative nicotine products must inevitably renormalise cigarette smoking. Naturally, population trends alone cannot prove vaping caused declining smoking rates; taxation, smoke-free laws, changing social attitudes, prevention campaigns and other factors all contribute.
That distinction is really important. While it’s crucial to prevent young people from starting nicotine, tackling vaping and eliminating smoking are not the same public health goals. Cigarettes are especially dangerous since the combustion process creates a toxic mix that leads to most tobacco-related diseases.
Evidence for vaping as a smoking cessation tool keeps strengthening
In seven trials with 2,544 participants, nicotine vaping increased quit rates by 59% compared to NRT. To put it simply, about eight to ten out of every 100 people using nicotine e-cigarettes managed to quit for at least six months, while roughly six out of 100 who used patches, gum, or other NRT were successful.
That places vaping firmly within the evidence-based smoking cessation toolkit rather than merely making it an alternative consumer product.
A model to follow
New Zealand has increasingly attempted to combine adult access with measures intended to prevent youth uptake. Its government explicitly recognises less harmful alternatives such as vaping as practical tools for smokers trying to quit. CAPHRA argues that this approach deserves particular consideration across Asia, where millions continue to smoke while several governments favour prohibition or severe restrictions on vaping.
There are important qualifications. New Zealand authorities acknowledge that illicit cigarettes could account for part of the accelerated reduction in legal tobacco sales, while persistent smoking inequalities remain, particularly among Māori and more deprived communities. These challenges reinforce the need for targeted cessation support rather than complacency.
The undeniable case for tobacco harm reduction
New Zealand’s experience may not prove that vaping alone caused its remarkable decline in smoking. However, it does show that widespread access to vaping goes hand in hand with decreased smoking rates.
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